Lectures

These are the slides from David McRaney and John Romano’s presentation at SXSW 2015 all about how to improve design through understanding the science of judgments and decision making.

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SOURCES FOR CURRENT LONG LECTURE

Adelson, Edward H. Checker Shadow Illusion. 1995. http://web.mit.edu/persci/people/adelson/checkershadow_illusion.html

American Statistical Association. Resolution in Honor of Abraham Wald. The American Statistician. Volume 5, Issue 1, 1951. http://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00031305.1951.10481915#.VBDfjmRdUfk

Ancient Visions. http://nivea.psycho.univ-paris5.fr/FeelingSupplements/AncientVisions.htm

Anderson, Chuck. Rags to Rats? Is Spontaneous Generation Possible? Discovery News. 2006. http://www.discoverynews.us/DISCOVERY%20MUSEUM/SciencePavilion/RAGS_to_RATS.html

Ask HN: Survivor Bias. Why don’t we focus more on startups that fail? November 2012. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4812480

Bodanis, David. E=mc²: A Biography of the World’s Most Famous Equation. New York: Walker, 2000. Print.

Bodanis, David. Einstein the Nobody. NOVA. 2005. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/physics/einstein-the-nobody.html

Brown, Derren. Mind Games. BBC Channel Four. January 2012. http://www.channel4.com/programmes/derren-brown-mind-control

Carroll, Sean. What is Science? Preposterous Universe. July 3, 2013. http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2013/07/03/what-is-science/

Clark, Josh. Are modern cars less problematic? How Stuff Works. 22 March 2013. http://auto.howstuffworks.com/under-the-hood/diagnosing-car-problems/mechanical/cars-less-problematic.htm

Cohen, Jason. Smart Bear: Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias. 17 August 2009. http://blog.asmartbear.com/business-advice-plagued-by-survivor-bias.html

Coman, David. A Telling Portrait… University of Lethbridge. 2002. http://classes.uleth.ca/200103/art2850a/lecture3.1.html

Damasio, Antonio R. Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. New York: Putnam, 1994. Print.

Dickersin, K, S Chan, T.C Chalmersx, H.S Sacks, and Jr H. Smith. “Publication Bias and Clinical Trials.” Controlled Clinical Trials. 8.4 (1987): 343-353. Print.

Encyclopædia Britannica “Spontaneous Generation”. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2014. Web. 11 Sep. 2014. http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/560859/spontaneous-generation

Erickson, LeAnn. Top Secret Rosies. 2010. http://www.topsecretrosies.com/Top_Secret_Rosies/Home.html

Gould, Stephen J. “Wide Hats and Narrow Minds.” New Scientist 81.1 (1979): 776-77. Print.

Grabmeier, Jeff. Does Something Leave Our Eyes During Vision? Many Adults Say Yes. http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/eyerays.htm

Gross, C. G. “The Fire That Comes from the Eye.” The Neuroscientist 5.1 (1999): 58-64. https://www.princeton.edu/~cggross/neuroscientist_5_99_fire.pdf

Hancock, A. (2012). Weird Myths About Gooseneck Barnacles. http://www.ucluelet.travel/http://www.ucluelet.travel/blog/weird-facts-about-gooseneck-barnacles (Link inactive)

Haidt, Jonathan. The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion. New York: Pantheon, 2012. Print.

Heron-Allen, Edward. Barnacles in Nature and in Myth. London: Oxford University Press, 1928. Print.

INTJoe. How often do you consider the “Survivorship Bias”? November 2009. http://intjforum.com/showthread.php?t=26327

Irish Cultural Society of San Antonio Texas. Beltane: Festival of Fire and Light. http://www.irishculturalsociety.com/essaysandmisc/beltain2.html

James, Barnaby. Spolsky on Survivor Bias. 8 February 2009. http://survivorbias.wordpress.com/2009/02/28/spolsky-on-survivor-bias/

Johnston, Mike. The Trough of No Value. 6 February 2009. http://theonlinephotographer.typepad.com/the_online_photographer/2009/02/the-trough-of-no-value.html

Joseph, R. Confabulation and Delusional Denial: Frontal Lobe and Lateralized Influences. Journal of Clinical Psychology 42, no. 3 (1986): 845– 60.

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011. Print.

Klinedinst, Mark. Personal interview. 21 May 2013.

Levine, Russell, and Chris Evers. The Slow Death of Spontaneous Generation (1668– 1859). Access Excellence @ the National Health Museum Resource Center. http://www.accessexcellence.org/RC/AB/BC/Spontaneous_Generation.php

Menger, Karl. The Formative Years of Abraham Wald and His Work in Geometry. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23 (1952), no. 1, 14–20.

Mercier, H, and D Sperber. Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory. The Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 34.2 (2011): 57-74. http://www.dan.sperber.fr/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/MercierSperberWhydohumansreason.pdf

Morgenstern, Oskar. Abraham Wald, 1902-1950. Econometrica 19.4 (1951): 361-367.

Nisbett, Richard E., and Timothy D. Wilson. “Telling More than We Can Know: Verbal Reports on Mental Processes.” Psychological Review84.3 (1977): 231-59. Web. http://people.virginia.edu/~tdw/nisbett&wilson.pdf

NOVA ScienceNOW. Change Blindness. January 2011. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/body/change-blindness.html

Pantel, Johannes. Brain Fiction: Self-Deception and the Riddle of Confabulation. Review in American Journal of Psychiatry 163 (2006): 559.

Pettie, Andrew. Derren Brown: The System. 26 January 2008. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/3670756/Derron-Brown-The-System.html

Plait, Phil. E-mail Interview. March 2013.

Psych File Drawer. http://www.psychfiledrawer.org/TheFiledrawerProblem.php

Rees, Mina. The Mathematical Sciences and World War II. The American Mathematical Monthly October 1980: 607-621.

Rokeach, Milton. The Three Christs of Ypsilanti. New York: New York Review Books, 2011.

Rusbult, Craig. Extramission Theory of Vision is a Misconception about Vision. American Scientific Affiliation. 2007. http://www.asa3.org/ASA/education/views/extramission.htm

Samaniego, Marc Mangel and Francisco J. Wald’s Work on Aircraft Survivability. Journal of the American Statistical Association 79.386 (1984): 259-267.

ScepticaTV. Derren Brown – The System. February 2011. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4

Scherer, Sina. Bias in psychology: Bring in all significant results. 1 June 2012.  http://jeps.efpsa.org/blog/2012/06/01/falsification-of-previous-results/

Simons DJ, Chabris CF (2011) What People Believe about How Memory Works: A Representative Survey of the U.S. Population. PLoS ONE 6(8): e22757.

Skinner, D. (2006). The Age of Female Computers. http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-age-of-female-computers

Smith, M. D., Wiseman, R. & Harris, P. (2000). The relationship between ‘luck’ and psi. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 94, 25-36.

Smith, M. D., Wiseman, R., Harris, P. & Joiner, R. (1996). On being lucky: The psychology and parapsychology of luck. European Journal of Parapsychology, 12, 35-43.

Space Travel’s A Crime. Our National Survivor Bias. 13 December 2010. http://spacetravelsacrime.blogspot.com/2010/12/our-national-survivor-bias.html

Stanford University. A History of the Eye. http://web.stanford.edu/class/history13/earlysciencelab/body/eyespages/eye.html

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: Kindle Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, 2011.

Tête, Annie. SciTech Tuesday: Abraham Wald, Seeing the Unseen. 13 November 2012. http://www.nww2m.com/2012/11/scitech-tuesday-abraham-wald-seeing-the-unseen/

Tong, Sophia. Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning Preview – Taking down the Balor. December 8, 2011. http://www.gamesradar.com/kingdoms-amalur-reckoning-preview-taking-down-balor/

TV Tropes. Eye Beams: Folklore.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/EyeBeams/Folklore

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgments of and by Representativeness.” Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Eds. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982, pp. 84– 99.

Volkswagen New Beetle History. 22 March 2013 http://www.edmunds.com/volkswagen/new-beetle/history.html

Wallis, W. Allen. The Statistical Research Group, 1942-1945. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75.370 (1980): 320-330.

Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12, 129-140.

Wason, P. C. (1962). Reply to Wetherick. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 14, 250.

Wason, P. C. (1968). Reasoning about a rule. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 20, 273-281.

West, Walt. Examining Your Failures Can Lead to More Success: Beware Survivor Bias Mistakes. 7 April 2011. http://www.practicemanagementacademy.com/2011/04/survivor-bias

White, Beatrice. “Whale-hunting, the Barnacle Goose, and the Date of the “Ancrene Riwle.” Three Notes on Old and Middle English.” The Modern Language Review. 40.3 (1945): 205-207. Print.

Wilkins, John S. Evolving Thoughts: Tales of the barnacle goose. Science Blogs. August 15, 2006. http://scienceblogs.com/evolvingthoughts/2006/08/15/tales-of-the-barnacle-goose/

Wilson, Kevin. Men of Air: The Doomed Youth of Bomber Command. Orion, 2007.

Winer, Gerald A, and Jane E. Cottrell. Does Anything Leave the Eye When We See? Extramission Beliefs of Children and Adults. Current Directions in Psychological Science. 5.5 (1996): 137-142. Web. http://cdp.sagepub.com/content/5/5/137.full.pdf

Wiseman, Richard. The Luck Factor. Skeptical Inquirer: The Magazine For Science And Reason May 2003.

http://richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf

Wolfowitz, J. Abraham Wald, 1902-1950. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23.1 (1952): 1-13.

Wolverton, M. (2011). Girl Computers. Retrieved May 2013. http://www.americanheritage.com/content/girl-computers

Zaidel, E., Zaidel, D. W., & Bogen, J. E. The split brain. In G. Adelman & B. Smith (Eds.) Encyclopedia of Neuroscience, 1999; 2nd Ed. : 1027-1032. http://www.its.caltech.edu/~jbogen/text/ref130.htm

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